The Texas A&M Aggies play their first SEC game in history Saturday when they host the Florida Gators in front of what should be a frenzied crowd in College Station, but they could be at a bit of a disadvantage as this is now their season opener with last week?s contest vs. Louisiana Tech washed out by Hurricane Isaac.
Then again, Florida looked so lackluster in a 27-14 win over Bowling Green in Week 1 that Texas A&M has still been installed as a small 1?-point favorite in its inaugural SEC contest with the total set at 52.
1. Why Texas A&M will cover the spread: This is a tough one to call for the simple fact that the Aggies have not played a game yet and they have many new faces on the field including a redshirt freshman quarterback and a new coaching staff. Even with that said though, keys to a Texas A&M cover are good line play on both sides of the ball and an effective running game. When the defense is on the field, the line needs to put pressure on the Florida quarterback, who looks to be Jeff Driskel as he was the lesser of the two evils last week while splitting snaps with Jacoby Brissett. When the Aggies? offense is on the field, the offensive line must contain the very good Florida defensive line, allowing Texas A&M to establish a running game. That would take the pressure off of young quarterback Johnny Manziel, who himself was a dual-threat quarterback in high school that is quite adept at running with the ball.
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2. Why Florida will cover the spread: The Gators will cover the spread if the quarterback(s) can get the ball downfield. Florida actually has a very good and experienced receiving corps, but that was not evident last week because neither quarterback was accurate with longer throws. Brissett started and was mostly ineffective in the opener, so Driskel probably earned the start this week by completing 10-of-16 passes for 114 yards. Still, even he missed some open receivers downfield and most of his completions were very short, with his yardage total padded by yards the receivers tacked on after the catch.
3. Total Talk: We lean to the ?under? here because we are not convinced that the Florida quarterbacks are capable of stepping up their game, while Texas A&M figures to make some mistakes in its first game of the season with new players, new coaches and a new offensive scheme. We do favor A&M to ride the emotion of the home crowd to victory, but it may be a struggle.
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4. Betting Trends for the game: When the Gators start struggling as they did last week, they usually continue to struggle as they are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. The Aggies went 3-9 ATS last season, but that was under the old Mike Sherman regime and Texas A&M is looking for better things under former Houston coach Kevin Sumlin. With Texas A&M joining the SEC, it should be pointed out that the Aggies are 0-7 both straight up and ATS vs. SEC teams since 2000.
Texas A&M 27, Florida 21
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